Dampak Demokrasi terhadap Perdagangan di Negara-Negara Berpendapatan Menengah dan Tinggi Asia [Impacts of Democracy on Trade Activity in Asia's Middle and High Income Countries]
Nathania Riris Michico Tambunan
| Abstract views: 219
| 
views: 595
Abstract
A democratic system is a way as the basis for supporting the trade process among countries. Increased international trade can generate economic growth. But some parties claim that democracy actually would hinder or even threatens the trade flows. That dynamic situation is increasingly apparent in middle and high-income countries. This study aims to determine whether democracy impacts on trade, especially in Asia. Using the Gravity Model, this study focuses on 11 countries divided by their income from period 2009 to 2018. The high-income countries chosen in this study are Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Brunei Darussalam, and middle-income countries are China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Pakistan, and India. Using the panel data regression method, the results of this study states that democracy in the Asia Countries affected trade significantly. It was also found that trade in high-income countries was not affected by democracy, while trade in low-income countries was strongly influenced by democracy.
Keywords: democracy, trade, Gravity Model, middle income countries, high income countries
Abstrak
Sistem demokrasi menjadi salah satu jalan untuk mendukung terjadinya perdagangan antara negara satu dengan lainnya. Peningkatan perdagangan internasional berkontribusi penting terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Namun demikian, beberapa pihak mengklaim bahwa demokrasi dianggap menghambat atau bahkan dapat mengancam suatu aliran perdagangan. Dinamika dari situasi tersebut semakin terlihat jelas ketika melibatkan negara-negara berpendapatan menengah dan tinggi. Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah demokrasi berdampak pada perdagangan, khususnya di Asia. Dengan menggunakan Model Gravitasi, studi ini difokuskan pada 11 negara yang dibagi berdasarkan pendapatan dari tahun 2009 hingga 2018. Negara berpendapatan tinggi yang dipilih dalam penelitian ini adalah Jepang, Singapura, Korea Selatan, dan Brunei Darussalam, dan negara berpendapatan menengah adalah Tiongkok, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Filipina, Pakistan, dan India. Berdasarkan pendekatan melalui metode regresi data panel, hasil penelitian ini menemukan bahwa interaksi antara demokrasi dan negara-negara di Asia memengaruhi perdagangan secara signifikan. Namun, ditemukan pula bahwa perdagangan di negara-negara berpenghasilan tinggi tidak terpengaruh oleh demokrasi, sedangkan perdagangan di negara-negara berpenghasilan rendah sangat dipengaruhi oleh demokrasi.
Kata kunci: demokrasi, perdagangan, Model Gravitasi, negara berpendapatan menengah, negara berpendapatan tinggi
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
Buku:
Aghion, P., Alesina, A., & Trebbi, F. (2008). Democracy, technology, and growth. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Arvis, Jean-Francois., Saslavsky, D., Ojala, L., Shepherd, Ben., Busch, C., & Raj, A. (2014). Connecting to compete 2014: Trade logistics in the global economy-The Logistics. Performance Index and its indicators. Washington DC: The World Bank.
Barro, R.J. (1996). Determinants of economic growth: A cross-country empirical study, Cambridge: MIT Press Books, Edition 1, Volume 1. Cambridge: MIT Press.
Basri, F., Wee, T.K., Risza, H., Prasetyantoko, A., Tjandraningsih, I., & Hikmat, B. (2013). Menemukan konsensus kebangsaan baru: Negara, pasar, dan cita-cita keadilan. Jakarta: Pusat Studi Agama & Demokrasi (PUSAD) Yayasan Wakaf Paramadina.
Budiman, A. (2006). Kebebasan, negara, pembangunan: Kumpulan tulisan 1965-2005. Jakarta: Pustaka Alvabet dan Freedom Institute.
Friedman, T.L. (1999). The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding globalization. New York: Anchor Books-Random House.
Ghozali, I. (2011). Aplikasi analisis multivariate dengan program SPSS 19. Edisi Kelima. Semarang: Badan Penerbit Universitas Diponegoro.
Head, K., & Mayer, T. (2014). Gravity Equations: Workhorse, toolkit, and cookbook. In Gita G., Elhanan H., & Kenneth R. (eds.). Handbook of international economics. Volume 4 (131-195). Oxford: Elsevier and Book Aid International.
Irawan, & Suparmoko, M. (2002). Ekonomika pembangunan. Edisi ke-6. Yogyakarta: BPFE-Yogyakarta.
Krugman, P.R., & Obstfeld, M. (2009). International economics: Theory and policy. Eight Edition. Boston: Addison-Wesley.
Marijan, K. (2010). Sistem politik Indonesia: Konsolidasi demokrasi pasca orde baru. Jakarta: Kencana.
Przeworski, A., Alvarez, M.E., Cheibub, J.A., & Limongi, F. (2000). Democracy and development: Political institutions and well-being in the world, 1950-1990. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Rueschemeyer, D., Stephens, E.H., & Stephens, J.D. (1992). Capitalist development and democracy. Volume 14. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Jurnal dan Working Paper:
Acemoglu, D., Naidu, S., Restrepo, P., & Robinson, J.A. (2019). Democracy does cause growth? Journal of Political Economy, 127(1), 47-100.
Anderson, J E., & Wincoop, E. van. (2003). Gravity with gravitas: A solution to the border. American Economic Review, 93(1), 170-192.
Balamatsias, P. (2018). Democracy and taxation. Economics: The Open- Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 12: 1–28.
Cervellati, M., Naghavi, A., & Toubal, F. (2018). Trade liberalization, democratization and technology adoption. Journal of Economic Growth, 23, 145-173.
Chen, C. & Li, A.X. (2018). Does democracy cause trade policy liberalisation? Unpacking the black box of trade policy. Journal of International Relations and Development, 21(4), 1014-1037.
Eichengreen, B., & Leblang, D. (2007). Democracy and globalization. Economics & Politics, 20(3), 289-334.
Elliott, RJ.R., & Ikemoto, K. (2004). AFTA and the Asian crisis: Help or hindrance to ASEAN intra-regional trade? Asian Economic Journal, 18(1), 1-23.
Fakhrudin, U., & Hastiadi, F.F. (2016). Impact analysis of normalized revealed comparative advantage on ASEAN’s non-oil and gas export pattern using Gravity-Model approach. Working Paper in Economics and Business, 5(3), 1-25.
Frankel, J.A. & Rose, A.K. (2000). Estimating the effects of currency unions on trade and output. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 7857.
Galiani, S., & Torrens, G. (2014). Autocracy, democracy and trade policy. Journal of International Economics, 93(1), 173-193.
Goodell, G. (1985). The importance of political participation for sustained capitalist development. Archives Europdennes de Sociologie, 26(1), 93-127.
Hadiz, V.R., & Robison, R. (2013). The political economy of oligarchy and the reorganization of power in Indonesia. Indonesia, 96, 35-58.
Hairi, M.I.A. (2016). Sistem Pemerintahan Soft-Autoritharian Singapura di tengah arus demokrasi. Jurnal Pemerintahan dan Politik, 1(2), 1-5.
Helliwell, J.F. & Verdier, G. (2001). Measuring internal trade distances: a new method applied to estimate provincial border effects in Canada. Canadian Journal of Economics, 34(4), 1024-1041.
Hendria, M. Oktaviani, R., & Sartono, B. (2017). Faktor yang mempengaruhi aliran perdagangan pakaian jadi Indonesia dengan rentang waktu penelitian tahun 2001-2016 (Factors that affect the flow of indonesian apparel trade in the period of research on 2001-2016). Arena Tekstil, 32(2), 77-86.
Heo, U., Hahm, S.D., & Kim, D. (2012). The impact of democratization on economic growth in Asia: An interrupted time-series analysis. Korea Observer, 43(1), 21-45.
Heo, U., & Kim, H. (2019). Economic globalization and democratic development in East Asia: The indirect link. Journal of Asian and African Studies, 54(2), 248-266.
Jacks, D.S., Meissner, C.M., & Novy, D. (2008). Trade costs, 1870-2000. American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 98(2), 529-534.
Jacks, D.S, Meissner, C.M, & Novy, D. (2011). Trade booms, trade busts, and trade cost. Journal of International Economics, 83, 185-201.
Jane, Chin-Chia. (2011). Performance evaluation of logistics systems under cost and reliability considerations. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 47(2), 130-137.
Kimura, F., Takahashi, Y., & Hayakawa, K. (2007). Fragmentation and parts and components trade: Comparison between East Asia and Europe. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 18(1), 23-40.
Kono, D.Y. (2006). Optimal obfuscation: Democracy and trade policy transparency. American Political Science Review, 100(3), 369-384.
Kurzman, C., Werum, R., & Burkhart, R.E. (2002). Democracy’s effect on economic growth: A pooled tune-series analysis, 1951-1980. Studies in Comparative International Development, 37, 3-33.
Leal-Arcas, R. (2011). China’s economic rise and regional trade. APEC and the Rise of China, World Scientific, 93-120.
Li, Q., & Reuveny, R. (2003). Economic globalization and democracy: An empirical analysis. British Journal of Political Science, 33(1), 29-54.
Lipset, S.M. (1959). Some social requisites of democracy: Economic development and political legitimacy. The American Political Science Review, 53(1), 69-105.
Maulana, F., & Hastiadi, F.F. (2019). Does democracy cause regional disintegration? The effect of democracy on ASEAN intra-regional and extra-regional trade. Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 37-55.
Mélitz, J. (2007). North, South and distance in the Gravity Model. European Economic Review, 51, 971-991.
Milner, H.V., & Kubota, K. (2005). Why the move to free trade? Democracy and trade policy in the developing countries. International Organization, 59(1), 107-143.
Milner, H.V., & Mukherjee, B. (2009). Democratization and economic globalization. The Annual Review of Political Science, 12(1), 163-181.
Mukherjee, B., Smith, D., & Li Q. (2009). Labor (im)mobility and the politics of trade protection in majoritarian democracies. The Journal of Politics, 71(1), 291-308.
Muller, E.N. (1995). Economic determinants of democracy. American Sociological Review, 60(6), 966-982.
O’Rourke K., & Taylor, A.M (2006). Democracy and protectionism. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 12250.
Peck, J. (2001). Neoliberalizing states: Thin policies/hard outcome. Progress in Human Geography, 25(3), 445-455.
Polterovich, V., & Popov, V. (2010). Democratization, quality of institutions and economic growth. MPRA Paper No. 19152.
Puspa, Y.A. (2019). Gaya kepemimpinan otoriter dan demokratis: Berhasil membawa kesejahteraan masyarakat (Studi kasus kepemimpinan Lee Kuan Yew di Negara Singapura). Working Paper Fakultas Ilmu Administrasi, Universitas Brawijaya.
Rivera-Batiz. (2000). Democracy, governance, and economic growth: Theory and Evidence. Review of Development Economics Journal, 6(2), 225-247.
Rodrik, D. (1999). Where did all the growth go? External shocks, social conflict, and growth collapses. Journal of Economic Growth, 4(4), 385-412.
Stepan, A., & Linz, J.J. (2013). Democratization theory and the “Arab Spring”. Journal of Democracy, 24(2), 16-30.
Sun, H. (1999). Impact of FDI on the foreign trade of China. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 4(2), 317-339.
Suryanta, B. (2012). Aplikasi rejim persamaan Model Gravitasi yang telah dirubah pada kasus dinamika arus perdagangan Indonesia dengan mitra dagang dari ASEAN. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan, 15(2), 57-76.
Weede, E. (1983). The impact of democracy on economic growth: Some evidence from cross‐national analysis. Kyklos, International Review for Social Sciences, 36(1), 21-39.
Yu, M. (2010). Trade, democracy, and the gravity equation. Journal of Development Economics, 91(2), 289-300.
Yue, J., & Zhou, S. (2018). Democracy’s comparative advantage: Evidence from aggregated trade data, 1962–2010. World Development, 111, 27-40.
Zissimos, B. (2017). A theory of trade policy under dictatorship and democratization. Journal of International Economics, 109, 85-101.
Disertasi:
Bussmann, M. (2001). Examining causality among militarized interstate disputes, regime type, trade openness, and economic growth. PhD dissertation, Tuscaloosa: University of Alabama.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
