"ARAB SPRING" DAN PEREBUTAN PENGARUH DI SURIAH

Humphrey Wangke
| Abstract views: 836

Abstract

This essay discusses waves of mass-demonstration recently in Suriah which cries
for a democratic regime change in that country. Applying the game theory, the
writer argues that the success of political reform there will be determined by
the role of external powers due to the reason that all conflicting parties have
organized international supports. Such support will sharpen existing different
perceptions between the repressive government and democratic forces or the
opposition groups. Thus, it says here that a peaceful democratic transition will
be more difficult to be reached.

References

Andrew Quinn and Khaled Yacoub Oweis, “US Signals of Arming Syrian opositions”, The Jakarta Post, 23 Februari 2012

“Annan Gagal Yakinkan Assad”, Kompas 13 Maret 2012.

“Annan Lobi Para Menlu”, Kompas, 11 Maret 2012.

Annette Buchs, “The Resilience of Authoritarian Rule in Syria under Hafez and Bashar Al-Asad”, GIGA Working Papers, No. 97, Hamburg, 2009.

Anthony Kelly, Decision Making Using Game Theory: An Introduction for Managers, Cambridge University Press, UK, 2003.

Arab Human Development Report: Chalengges to Human Security in Arab Countries, United Nations Development Programme, Regional Bureau for Arab States (RBAS), New York, 2009.

Axel Hadenius and Jan Teorell, “Authoritarian Regimes: Stability, Change, and Pathways to Democracy, 1972–2003”, Working Paper, No. 331, The Hellen Kellogg Institute for International Studies, November 2006.

“Bantuan US$ 800 Juta untuk Arab Spring”, Koran Tempo, 16 Februari 2012.

Ben Hubbard and Zeina Karam, “Syria’s Assad determind to keep fighting”, The Jakarta Post, 8 Maret 2012.

Chris Zambelis, “The Strategic Implications of Political Liberalization and Democratization in the Middle East”, Parameters, 2005.

Clive Thomson, “Can Game Theory Predict When Iran Will Get the Bomb?”, dalam The New York Times, 12 Agustus 2009, dalam http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/16/magazine/16Bruce-t.html?pagewanted=all, diakses 10 Februari 2012.

Colin F. Camerer, “Behavioral Game Theory: Experiments in Strategic Interaction”, Princeton University Press, New Jersey, 2003.

David S. Sorenson, “Transitions in the Arab World: Spring or Fall?”, Strategic Studies Quarterly, Fall 2011.

David W. Lesch, “The Arab spring – and winter – in Syria”, Global Change, Peace & Security, Global Change, Vol. 23 No 3, 2011.

Ding Qingfen, “China Looks to Arab States for Opportunities”, dalam http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2011-04/09/content_12297375.htm, diakses 8 Maret 2012.

Ellen Lust-Okar, “Why the failure of Democratization? Explaining ‘Middle East Exceptionalism”, Yale University, 2007.

Eva Bellin, “The Robustness of authoritarianism in the Middle East: Exceptionalism in Comparative Perspective”, Comparative Politics, Vol. 36, No. 2, Jan., 2004.

“Hadi Resmi Presiden Yaman”, Koran Tempo, 28 Februari 2012.

Heryadi, “Mempersenjatai Oposisi Suriah”, Media Indonesia, 29 Februari 2012.

“Hubungan Rusia-Suriah Amat Strategis”, dalam Kompas, 13 Februari 2012.

Jason Brownlee, “....And Yet They Persist: Explaining Survival and Transition in Neopatrimonial Regimes”, dalam Studies in Comparative International Development, Vol. 37, No. 3, 2002.

Jay Solomon and Bill Spindle, Syria Strongman: Time for Reform, wawancara Bashar al Assad dengan The Asian Wall Street Journal tanggal 31 Januari 2012, dalam http://online.wsj.com/article/, diakses 6 Maret 2012,

Jonas Parello-Plesner, China and the Arab Spring: External and Internal Consequences and Implications for EU-China Cooperation, ISPI Analysis, No. 53, Mei 2011.

“Kami Bukan Pendukung Rezim Assad”, Koran Tempo, 15 Februari 20012.

Khaled Yacoub Oweis, “Syrian Army pounds rebels, new move at UN”, The Jakarta Post, 29 Februari 2012

Larry Diamond, Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation, Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, 1999.

Lisa Anderson, “Demystifying the Arab Spring, Parsing the Differences Between Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya”, Foreign Affairs, Volume 90 No.3, 2011.

Lucan A. Way and Steven Levitsky, “Why “Democratic Breakthroughs” often fail to create democracies: Modes of Transition and the Prospects for Democratic Change”, dalam http://www.sais-jhu.edu/sebin/m/j/lucanway-background.pdf, diakses tanggal 22 Februari 2012.

Marcus Nolan, “Explaining Middle Eastern Authoritarianism”, Working Paper No 05-5, Institute for International Economics. Juni 2005.

Marsha Pripstein Posusney, “The Middle East’s Deficit in Democracy: Comparative Perspective”, dalam Marsha Pripstein Posusney & Michele Penner Angrist (ed.), Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Regimes nd Resistance, Lynne Rienner, Boulder, Colorado, 2005.

Marwa Daoudy, “Syria: Revolution and Repression”, dalam Arab Spring and the Implications for British Policy, Conservative Middle East Council (CMEC), London, 2011.

“Mayoritas Rakyat Suriah Dukung Konstitusi Baru”, Suara Pembaruan, 28 Februari 2012.

Mirjam E. Sorli, Nils Petter Gleditsch dan Havard Strand, “Why Is There So Much Conflict in the Middle East?”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2005; Vol. 49.

Musthafa Abd Rahman, “Misi Sulit Kofi Annan: Dari Kairo Hingga Damaskus”, Kompas, 11 Maret 2011.

“Peluk Erat Beruang Merah”, Media Indonesia, 14 Februari 2012.

“Petinggi Suriah Membelot”, Kompas, 9 Maret 2012.

Randall Kuhn, “On the Role of Human Development in the Arab Spring”, Working Paper, University of Colorado, Boulder, September 2011.

Roberto Aliboni, “The International Dimension of the Arab Spring”, The International Spectator, Vol. 46, No. 4, Desember 2011.

“Rusia Mulai Abaikan Suriah”, Kompas, 12 Maret 2012.

Sean L. Yom, “Civil Society and Democratization in the Arab”, dalam Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 9, No. 4, Desember 2005.

Simon Parsons and Michael Wooldridge, Game Theory and Decision Theory in Multi-Agent Systems, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherland, 2000.

Tabassum Zakaria, “No successor to Assad’s “coup-proof” rule in Syria”, The Jakarta Post, 28 Februari 2012.

Tom Plate, “Why China resists Syrian intervention”, The Jakarta Post, 1 Maret 2011.

Copyright (c) 2016 Jurnal Politica Dinamika Masalah Politik Dalam Negeri dan Hubungan Internasional
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.