Dampak Demokrasi terhadap Perdagangan di Negara-Negara Berpendapatan Menengah dan Tinggi Asia [Impacts of Democracy on Trade Activity in Asia's Middle and High Income Countries]
Nathania Riris Michico Tambunan
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Abstract
A democratic system is a way as the basis for supporting the trade process among countries. Increased international trade can generate economic growth. But some parties claim that democracy actually would hinder or even threatens the trade flows. That dynamic situation is increasingly apparent in middle and high-income countries. This study aims to determine whether democracy impacts on trade, especially in Asia. Using the Gravity Model, this study focuses on 11 countries divided by their income from period 2009 to 2018. The high-income countries chosen in this study are Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Brunei Darussalam, and middle-income countries are China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Pakistan, and India. Using the panel data regression method, the results of this study states that democracy in the Asia Countries affected trade significantly. It was also found that trade in high-income countries was not affected by democracy, while trade in low-income countries was strongly influenced by democracy.
Keywords: democracy, trade, Gravity Model, middle income countries, high income countries
Abstrak
Sistem demokrasi menjadi salah satu jalan untuk mendukung terjadinya perdagangan antara negara satu dengan lainnya. Peningkatan perdagangan internasional berkontribusi penting terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Namun demikian, beberapa pihak mengklaim bahwa demokrasi dianggap menghambat atau bahkan dapat mengancam suatu aliran perdagangan. Dinamika dari situasi tersebut semakin terlihat jelas ketika melibatkan negara-negara berpendapatan menengah dan tinggi. Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah demokrasi berdampak pada perdagangan, khususnya di Asia. Dengan menggunakan Model Gravitasi, studi ini difokuskan pada 11 negara yang dibagi berdasarkan pendapatan dari tahun 2009 hingga 2018. Negara berpendapatan tinggi yang dipilih dalam penelitian ini adalah Jepang, Singapura, Korea Selatan, dan Brunei Darussalam, dan negara berpendapatan menengah adalah Tiongkok, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Filipina, Pakistan, dan India. Berdasarkan pendekatan melalui metode regresi data panel, hasil penelitian ini menemukan bahwa interaksi antara demokrasi dan negara-negara di Asia memengaruhi perdagangan secara signifikan. Namun, ditemukan pula bahwa perdagangan di negara-negara berpenghasilan tinggi tidak terpengaruh oleh demokrasi, sedangkan perdagangan di negara-negara berpenghasilan rendah sangat dipengaruhi oleh demokrasi.
Kata kunci: demokrasi, perdagangan, Model Gravitasi, negara berpendapatan menengah, negara berpendapatan tinggi
Keywords
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