RCEP dari Perspektif Indonesia: Menguji Faktor Kedekatan Pembangunan Sebagai Strategi Peningkatan Ekspor

Edy Can, Fithra Faisal Hastiadi
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Abstract

Indonesia and 15 other countries are negotiating the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) since 2013 until this
research has been written. This is a free trade agreement which considered different from what has been made before in the Asia
Pacific Region. This research examines development proximity factors as a strategy to increase Indonesia’s exports in the RCEP market through the Gravity Model. The estimation model used is Random Effect Generalized Least Squared and Prais-Winsten with Standard Corrected Errors Panels. The results of the estimated coefficient are then used to determine the trade growth space using the trade potential ratio. The results show GDP per capita, similarity levels of GDP per capita, geographical distance and investment affect Indonesian exports. Indonesia has potential export to seven of 14 countries in RCEP. The highest trade potential ratio values in the
RCEP market are New Zealand, Thailand, Australia, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, Cambodia, and Malaysia. In the agricultural
sector, Indonesia has export potential with eight of the 14 RCEP members. The eight countries are Australia, Cambodia, Laos,
Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand. Meanwhile, in the manufacturing sector, Indonesia has
export potential with six out of 14 countries. The six countries are Australia, Cambodia, New Zealand, Singapore, the Philippines, and
Thailand. This means that Indonesia has better room for export growth in the agricultural sector than in the manufacturing sector.

Keywords: export, RCEP, development proximity, gravitation theory

Abstrak
Indonesia dan 15 negara lainnya sedang bernegosiasi tentang Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) sejak tahun
2013 hingga penelitian ini ditulis. Ini adalah perjanjian perdagangan bebas yang dianggap berbeda dengan yang telah ada sebelum-sebelumnya di Kawasan Asia Pasifik. RCEP akan menghapus tarif dan hambatan nontarif semua perdagangan barang secara substansial serta menghapus secara substansial pembatasan dana atau tindakan diskriminatif sektor jasa. Penelitian ini menguji
faktor-faktor kedekatan pembangunan (development proximity) sebagai strategi untuk meningkatkan ekspor di pasar RCEP dengan
Model Gravitasi. Model estimasi yang dipergunakan adalah Random Effect Generalized Least Squared dan Prais-Winsten dengan
Panels Standard Corrected Errors. Hasil dari estimasi koefisien kemudian dipakai untuk mengetahui ruang pertumbuhan perdagangan dengan menggunakan rasio potensi perdagangan. Hasil dari model estimasi menunjukkan PDB per kapita, tingkat kesamaan PDB per kapita, jarak geografis dan investasi berpengaruh terhadap ekspor Indonesia. Indonesia mempunyai ruang pertumbuhan ekspor di tujuh dari 14 negara di RCEP. Nilai rasio potensi perdagangan tertinggi di pasar RCEP adalah Selandia Baru, Thailand, Australia, Filipina, Korea Selatan, Kamboja, dan Malaysia. Di sektor pertanian, Indonesia mempunyai potensi ekspor dengan delapan dari 14 negara yang tergabung dalam RCEP. Delapan negara tersebut yakni Australia, Kamboja, Laos, Malaysia, Selandia Baru, Filipina, Korea Selatan, dan Thailand. Sementara di sektor manufaktur, Indonesia mempunyai potensi ekspor dengan enam dari 14 negara. Keenam negara tersebut yakni Australia, Kamboja, Selandia Baru, Singapura, Filipina, dan Thailand. Ini artinya Indonesia mempunyai ruang pertumbuhan ekspor yang lebih baik di sektor pertanian dibandingkan dengan sektor manufaktur.

Kata kunci: ekspor, RCEP, kedekatan pembangunan, teori gravitasi

Keywords

export; RCEP; development proximity; gravitation theory; ekspor; kedekatan pembangunan; teori gravitasi

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