Apakah Pemilihan Kepala Daerah Memengaruhi Pola Migrasi Keluar? Bukti Empiris di Indonesia [Does Local Election Influence Outmigration Pattern? Evidence from Indonesia]
Diana Sartika, Vid Adrison
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Abstract
Differences in migration flow between regions suggest a gap in development, such as amenities and public goods provision. Indonesia has decentralized to reduce this gap, including through direct election at the regional level (pilkada). The elected leader can provide public goods and services according to people’s needs and preferences. A change in policy direction related to amenities and the provision of public goods from local government will occur at the election time. This influences different migration patterns. This study specifies and estimates a panel model for inter-municipal outmigration in Indonesia during the elections period using Indonesia’s 514 municipal migration data between 2014 and 2018 from the Ministry of Home Affairs; we show that throughout the observed year our regression analysis demonstrates that there are a strong lead effect and lag effect of local election on the size of outmigration flows. Our findings thus suggest that local election can reduce outmigration flow in a district that went through election by 0.01 percent, due to public anticipation on the new policy direction of the prospective regional head and people tend to wait and see. Other findings suggest that there is a strong lag effect, by 0.02 percent. These results indicate that new policy direction may provide incentives to stay or delay the timing of migration for potential migrant, thus reduce the migration outflow, at least in the short run.
Keywords: migration, local election, Indonesia
Abstrak
Perbedaan pola migrasi antardaerah menunjukkan adanya kesenjangan pembangunan, salah satunya dari sisi fasilitas serta penyediaan barang dan layanan dasar. Desentralisasi merupakan salah satu upaya Pemerintah Indonesia untuk mengurangi kesenjangan dan mempercepat proses pemerataan pembangunan daerah, di antaranya melalui desentralisasi politik yaitu pemilihan langsung kepala daerah (pilkada). Kepala daerah terpilih diharapkan dapat menghasilkan kebijakan sesuai dengan kebutuhan dan preferensi masyarakatnya. Oleh karena itu, akan ada perubahan arah kebijakan terkait fasilitas dan penyediaan layanan dasar dari pemerintah daerah. Hal ini akan menyebabkan pola migrasi yang berbeda. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat pola migrasi keluar antardaerah pada saat pelaksanaan pilkada di Indonesia menggunakan data migrasi per semester tahun 2014-2018 dari Dirjen Kependudukan dan Pencatatan Sipil Kemendagri pada 514 kabupaten/kota. Sepanjang tahun pengamatan, hasil regresi menunjukkan bahwa ada efek antisipasi dan efek lag yang kuat dari pilkada pada arus migrasi keluar. Hasil estimasi menggunakan model panel fixed effect menunjukkan bahwa waktu pelaksanaan pilkada dapat menurunkan arus migrasi keluar pada daerah yang melaksanakan pilkada sebesar 0,01 persen, karena adanya efek antisipasi masyarakat terhadap arah kebijakan baru dari calon kepala daerah dan masyarakat cenderung untuk melakukan wait and see. Hasil estimasi juga menunjukkan bahwa terdapat efek lag yang kuat sebesar 0,02 persen. Hasil ini mengindikasikan bahwa arah kebijakan baru di daerah dapat menjadi insentif untuk menetap atau menunda waktu bermigrasi bagi potensial migran, sehingga menurunkan arus migrasi keluar, setidaknya pada short run.
Kata kunci: migrasi, pilkada, Indonesia
Keywords
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Laporan:
UNDP. (2019). Inequalities in human development in the 21st century: Indonesia. Human Development Report 2019. New York.
Conference Paper:
Lee, H.S., Lin, K., & Fang, H.H. (2006). A fuzzy multiple objective DEA for the human development index. Lecture Notes in Computer Science (Including Subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics), 922-928.
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