ANALISIS EKSPOR BATU BARA INDONESIA PADA KAWASAN RCEP
Rudy Voller, Fithra Faisal Hastiadi
| Abstract views: 0
| 
views: 0
Abstract
In the era of green energy, it is still relevant to discuss fossil energy. One of the fossil energies which consumption has increased since the industrial revolution is coal. The reason is that there is no available renewable energy source at an affordable cost, making coal as a traded commodity still the main choice for a number of countries to meet their energy needs, especially for power generation. In 2019, Indonesia took the first position as the world’s largest coal exporter where most of Indonesia’s coal exports were directed to the Asian region. Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) is expected to have an impact on improving the economy in the Asian region and encourage the growth of energy consumption, especially coal. This research aims to analyze Indonesian coal exports in the RCEP area using the Gravity Model which is estimated using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) technique. The estimation results show that the electricity generated from coal for exporting countries has a negative and significant value, while electricity generated from coal for importing countries has a positive and significant value for coal exports. Similar estimation results were obtained either with or without India joining the RCEP.
Keywords: energy, coal, Gravity Model, PPML, RCEP
Abstrak
Di era kesadaran terhadap energi terbarukan atau green energy, ternyata masih relevan untuk membahas energi fosil. Salah satu energi fosil yang konsumsinya meningkat sejak revolusi industri adalah batu bara. Alasannya adalah karena belum tersedianya sumber energi terbarukan dengan biaya yang terjangkau membuat batu bara sebagai komoditas yang diperdagangkan masih menjadi pilihan utama bagi sejumlah negara untuk memenuhi kebutuhan energinya khususnya untuk pembangkit listrik. Pada tahun 2019 Indonesia menempati posisi pertama sebagai eksportir batu bara terbesar dunia, dimana sebagian besar ekspor batu bara Indonesia ditujukan ke kawasan Asia. Terwujudnya Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) diperkirakan akan memberikan pengaruh terhadap peningkatan perekonomian di kawasan Asia dan mendorong pertumbuhan konsumsi energi khususnya batu bara. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis ekspor batu bara Indonesia pada kawasan RCEP dengan menggunakan Model Gravity yang diestimasi dengan teknik Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa variabel listrik yang dihasilkan dari batu bara bagi negara eksportir memiliki nilai yang negatif dan signifikan sedangkan listrik yang dihasilkan dari batu bara bagi negara importir memiliki nilai yang positif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor batu bara Indonesia. Hasil estimasi yang serupa juga didapatkan baik dengan atau tanpa bergabungnya India ke dalam RCEP.
Kata kunci: energi, batu bara, Model Gravity, PPML, RCEP
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
Buku:
Hsiao, C. (2014). Analysis of panel data (3rd ed.). USA: Cambridge University Press.
Indonesia Eximbank Institute. (2019). Kajian proyeksi ekspor berdasarkan industri: Komoditas unggulan. Jakarta: Indonesia Eximbank.
PT. PLN (Persero). (2020). Laporan statistik. Jakarta: PT. PLN (Persero).
Shepherd, B. (2013). The Gravity Model of international trade: A user guide. Thailand: United Nations Publication.
Jurnal dan Working Paper:
Carolina, L. T. dan Aminata, J. (2018). Analisis Daya Saing dan Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Batubara. Diponegoro Journal of Economics, Vol. 1 No. 1, hal 9.
Itakura, K. (2015). Assessing the Economic Effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on ASEAN Member States. East Asian Integration, 1-24.
Jagdambe, S., & Kannan, E. (2020). Effects of ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement on agricultural trade: The gravity model approach. World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
Jing, S., Cheng, J., & Shi, Z. (2020). China’s renewable energy trade potential in the “Belt-and-Road” countries: A gravity model analysis. Renewable Energy, Vol. 161, pp. 1025-1035.
Lee, J. W., & Oh, J. (2019). ASEAN or plus alpha? The effectiveness of regional economic cooperation. Asia Pacific Management Review, Vol. 25, pp. 48-53.
Leng, Z., Jing, S., Han, S., Zhiyao, S., & Zihan, W. (2020). Do China’s wind energy products have potentials for trade with the “Belt and Road” countries? -- A gravity model approach. Energy Policy, Vol. 137, 111172.
Li, K., Song, L., & Zhao, X. (2008). Component trade and China’s global economic integration. UNU-WIDER Research Paper.
Li, Q., & Moon, H. C. (2018). The trade and income effects of RCEP: implications for China and Korea. Journal of Korea Trade, Vol. 22 No. 3, pp. 306-318.
Lisnawati. (2017, Januari). Analisis Potensi Dampak Kebijakan Relaksasi Ekspor Mineral Mentah. Majalah Info Singkat Ekonomi Kebijakan Publik Vol. IX, pp. 13-16.
Liu, J., Wu, Y., & Yu, F. (2018). The Impact on the China’s Participation of RCEP: Evidence from Gravity Model. Proceedings of the 2018 9th International Conference on E-business, (pp. 96-100).
Mahadevan, R., & Nugroho, A. (2019). Can the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership minimise the harm from the United States-China trade war? The World Economy, Vol. 42, pp. 3148-3167.
Nguyen, T. (2018). Do trade agreements increase Vietnam’s exports to RCEP markets? Asian Pacific Economic Literature, Vol. 32, pp. 94-107.
Nugroho, H. (2017). Coal As the National Energy Supplier Forward: What are Policies to be Prepared? The Indonesian Journal of Development Planning, Vol. 1 No. 1, pp. 1-13.
Rukmono, I. (2012). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Batubara Indonesia Ke Cina, Jepang, Korea Selatan, India, Taiwan, Thailand, Philipina, dan Malaysia. Jakarta: FEUI.
Silva, S., & Tenreyro, S. (2006). The Log of Gravity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 88(1), pp. 641-658.
Silva, S., & Tenreyro, S. (2011). Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator. Economics Letters, Vol. 122(2), pp. 220-222.
Susanto, D.A., & Admi, R. (2021). The Determinants of Indonesia’s Coal Exports Demand to Six Asian Countries. JDE (Journal of Developing Economies), Vol. 6(1), 66-78.
Tilova, R. (2012). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Memengaruhi Permintaan Batubara Indonesia Di Empat Negara tujuan Ekspor Terbesar. Bogor: Fakultas Ekonomi dan Manajemen IPB.
Tuna, G., & Tuna, V. E. (2019). The asymmetric causal relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth in the ASEAN-5 countries. Resources Policy, Vol. 62, pp. 114-124.
Wahyudi, S.T., & Aggita, R.S. (2015). The Gravity Model of Indonesian Bilateral Trade. International Journal of Social and Local Economic Governance (IJLEG), Vol. 1, No. 2, Oktober 2015, pages 153-156.
Wiranthi, P. E., Aminudin, I., & Dewi, E. R. (2019). A Gravity Model for Indonesian Canned Tuna Exports to The European Union Market: An Application of PPML Estimator. SIJDEB, Vol. 3 No. 1, 31-52.
Yuniarti, D. (2007). Analisis Determinan Perdagangan Bilateral Indonesia Pendekatan Gravity Model. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, Vol. 2 No. 2, 99-109.
Sumber Digital:
Aprilianti, I. (2019). Will RCEP be beneficial for Indonesia? Diperoleh tanggal 10 Agustus 2020, dari https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341803498_Will_RCEP_be_beneficial_for_Indonesia.
Aria, P. (2019). Menghitung Bobot Aliansi Ekonomi RCEP Tanpa India. Diperoleh tanggal 2 September 2020, dari https://katadata.co.id/berita/2019/12/20/menghitung-bobot-aliansi-ekonomi-rcep-tanpa-india.
ASEAN Secretariat. (2020, November 15). ASEAN hits historic milestone with signing of RCEP. Diperoleh tanggal 16 November 2020, dari https://asean.org/asean-hits-historic-milestone-with-signing-of-rcep/.
BPS. (2020). Ekspor Batu Bara Menurut Negara Tujuan Utama, 2012-2020. Diperoleh tanggal 9 September 2020, dari https://www.bps.go.id/statictable/2014/09/08/1034/ekspor-batu-bara-menurut-negara-tujuanutama-2012-2020.html.
Distance Calculator. (2020). Calculate Distance. Diperoleh tanggal 11 November 2020, dari https://www.distance.to/.
IEA. (2019). Coal 2019: Analysis and Forecasts to 2024. Diperoleh tanggal 1 September 2020, dari https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2019.
ITC. (2020). Trade Map - Trade statistics for international business development. Diperoleh tanggal 20 November 2020, dari https://www.trademap.org/Index.aspx.
Kementerian ESDM. (2009). Peraturan Menteri ESDM No. 34 Tahun 2009 Tentang Pengutamaan Pemasok Kebutuhan Mineral Dan Batubara Untuk Kepentingan Umum. Diperoleh tanggal 20 November 2020, dari https://jdih.esdm.go.id/index.php/web/result/701/detail.
Kementerian ESDM. (2021). Capaian Kinerja 2020 dan Program Kerja 2021. Diperoleh tanggal 15 Januari 2021, dari https://www.esdm.go.id/assets/media/content/content-capaian-kinerja-tahun-2020-dan-program-kerjatahun-2021-sektor-esdm.pdf.
Pastukhova, M. (2021). The world’s biggest trade bloc is born – what does it mean for the energy transition?. Diperoleh tanggal 25 Maret 2021, dari https://energytransition.org/2021/03/the-worlds-biggest-trade-blocis-born-what-does-it-mean-for-the-energy-transition/.
Raihan, S. (2016). Advanced issues of Gravity Model. Diperoleh tanggal 12 Desember 2020, dari University of Dhaka https://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/Day2_S6_Advanced_issues_GravityModel.pdf.
Ritchie, H., & Roser, M. (2020). Energy. Diperoleh tanggal 5 November 2020, dari https://ourworldindata.org/energy.
The World Bank. (2020). Data Bank World Development Indicators. Diperoleh tanggal 6 November 2020, dari https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators#.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
