Analisis Potensi dan Dampak Perdagangan Indonesia Ke Pasar  Non Tradisional: GTAP Model

Hotsawadi Harahap

doi:10.22212/jekp.v15i2.3621

Analisis Potensi dan Dampak Perdagangan Indonesia Ke Pasar Non Tradisional: GTAP Model

Hotsawadi Harahap

10.22212/jekp.v15i2.3621

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Abstract

Non-Traditional Countries are potential countries as new markets for Indonesian export destinations. Various efforts need to be made to increase Indonesia's export volume, including through bilateral trade cooperation commitments. This study aims to analyze the potential and impact of Indonesia's trade liberalization to Non-Traditional Countries (Brazil, Georgia and the Russian Federation) on Indonesia's macroeconomic and sectoral indicators. The analysis method in this study uses the GTAP 10 database version method approach with various cooperation scenario approaches including tariff reductions of 50% and 95% on all commodities. The macroeconomic indicators analyzed in this study are welfare, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), consumption, investment, and trade balance. While the sectoral economic indicators studied are output levels and employment opportunities. The results of the study show that trade liberalization encourages an increase in Indonesia's real GDP, welfare, household consumption and investment. In contrast to the conditions of other macroeconomic variables, the trade liberalization scheme between Indonesia and Non-Traditional Countries causes a decline in Indonesia's trade performance. From the sectoral economic components, trade liberalization encourages an increase in output, exports and employment opportunities in Indonesia.

Abstrak

Negara Non Tradisional merupakan negara potensial sebagai pasar baru bagi tujuan ekspor Indonesia. Berbagai upaya perlu dilakukan untuk meningkatkan volume ekspor Indonesia diantaranya melalui komitmen kerja sama perdagangan secara bilateral. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis potensi dan dampak liberalisasi perdagangan Indonesia ke Negara Non Tradisional (Brazil, Georgia dan Russian Federation) terhadap indikator ekonomi makro dan sektoral Indonesia. Metode analisis pada penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan metode GTAP 10 versi database dengan berbagai pendekatan skenario kerja sama di antaranya penurunan tarif sebesar 50% dan 95% terhadap seluruh komoditas. Indikator ekonomi makro yang dianalisis di dalam penelitian ini yaitu kesejahteraan, Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) riil, konsumsi, investasi, dan neraca pedagangan. Sedangkan indikator ekonomi sektoral yang diteliti yaitu tingkat output dan kesempatan kerja. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa liberalisasi perdagangan mendorong peningkatan PDB riil, kesejahteraan, konsumsi rumah tangga dan investasi Indonesia. Berbeda dengan kondisi variabel makroekonomi lainnya, skema liberalisasi perdagangan antara Indonesia dengan Negara Non Tradisional menyebabkan penurunan pada performa kinerja perdagangan Indonesia. Dari komponen ekonomi sektoral, liberalisasi perdagangan mendorong peningkatan output, ekspor dan kesempatan kerja di Indonesia.

Keywords

trade liberalization; GTAP model; non-traditional; liberalisasi perdagangan

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.22212/jekp.v15i2.3621