COVID-19 DAN DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA

Ari Mulianta Ginting
10.22212/kajian.v25i4.3900
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Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has an impact on all sectors, including the economy. This study used a mixed approach to investigate the emergence of the Indonesian Covid-19 pandemic and its economic growth effect. To estimate Indonesia's economic development in the fourth quarters of 2020 and 2021, used qualitative approach. This research shows that, with the spread of almost all provinces in Indonesia, the Covid-19 pandemic shows a growing pattern. This study also found that DKI Jakarta Province, East Java Province, West Java Province, and Central Java are the provinces with the highest Covid-19 positive patients. The results showed that the Covid-19 pandemic has an impact on the economy. This impact is showed by the decline in economic growth year on year in the first, second, and third quarters. Furthermore, the forecast for the fourth quarter of 2020 is still expected to be negative at -1.53 percent. The only growth in GDP rate based on spending comes from government spending. Therefore, the Government must continue to provide fiscal stimulus to the economy to boost economic growth, significantly increasing public consumption.

AbstrakPandemi Covid-19 memberikan dampak terhadap semua sektor termasuk salah satunya adalah perekonomian. Penelitian ini dengan menggunakan mix method bertujuan meneliti perkembangan pandemi Covid-19 di Indonesia dan dampaknya terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Pendekatan kuantitatif digunakan untuk melakukan peramalan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada kuartal IV tahun 2020 dan kuartal I tahun 2021. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa pandemi Covid-19 menunjukkan tren yang semakin meningkat dengan sebaran hampir seluruh provinsi di Indonesia. Hasil penelitian ini juga menemukan Provinsi DKI Jakarta, Provinsi Jawa Timur, Provinsi Jawa Barat dan Jawa Tengah merupakan provinsi dengan jumlah pasien positif Covid-19 terbanyak. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pandemi Covid-19 memberikan dampak terhadap perekonomian. Hal ini ditunjukkan dengan penurunan pertumbuhan ekonomi year on year di kuartal I, II, dan III. Lebih lanjut forecast kuartal IV year on year tahun 2020 pun diperkirakan masih akan negatif di angka -1,53 persen. Satu-satunya pertumbuhan laju PDB berdasarkan pengeluaran berasal dari pengeluaran pemerintah. Untuk itu Pemerintah harus tetap memberikan stimulus fiskal terhadap perekonomian untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi khususnya meningkatkan konsumsi masyarakat.

Keywords

pandemic Covid-19; economic growth; forecasting; pandemi Covid-19; pertumbuhan ekonomi; peramalan

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.22212/kajian.v25i4.3900
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