ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI INFLASI: STUDI KASUS DI INDONESIA PERIODE TAHUN 2004-2014

Ari Mulianta Ginting
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Abstract

The development of economic of a country can be seen from various macroeconomics indicator. Among those macroeconomics indicators, inflation is one of those factors that has been concerned by the government. Inflation has been concerned because of the high inflation can distrub the economy and lower the purchasing power of people. This research want to analyze the development of inflation in Indonesia from 2004 until 2014 and analyze the influence of factors that cause inflation in Indonesia. This research uses qualitative and quantitative methods and using the data from the period 2004-2014. The research found that the inflation in Indonesia from 2004 until 2014 showed the trend of low and stable, with the average inflation in the period was 7,23% per year. The regession analysis VECM the long term equation found that the variable gap, exchange rate, money supply, and interest rate have a positive and significant effect on the rate of inflation. The same result also for short term equation. Based on these results suggest that there is an increasing of inflation if those variables increase too. From this result, then then Government must control the inflation by managing the macroeconomic variables, such as exchange rate, money supply, and the interest rate. Because if the Government managed those variables under control then the inflation rate in Indonesia can be mantained in low and stable. Government must also manage and improve the production of goods and services to full the needs of people.

Keywords

Inflation; output gap; exchange rate; money supply and interest rate

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