Eksistensi dan Determinan Middle Income Trap di Indonesia [Existence and Determinants of Middle Income Trap in Indonesia]

Hotmaria Elecktawati Lumbangaol, Ernawati Pasaribu
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Abstract

World Bank has classified that Indonesia has been included in lower-middle income countries in the last 13 years. This shows that Indonesia’s economic growth is quite stagnant for a long time and made Indonesia very potential to enter MIT. This study applies to identify whether Indonesia is already included in MIT. The time series analysis of ECM is also used to determine actions that can be taken in the long term to get out or avoid MIT. GNP per capita as the basis classification of income groups of countries in the world used as a variable to see MIT. The results show that both in the short and long term, service sector and high-educated labour have a positive effect to GNP per capita. The agricultural sector has a positive effect only in the short term, while the manufacturing sector is negatively affected in the long term. Economic structure condition that not supported together by these economic sectors show that economic structural transformation did not go well and indicates that Indonesia has fallen into MIT. The government is expected to improve the services sector, PMTB, and high-educated labour and improve the agricultural and manufacturing sectors in Indonesia as a way to get out from MIT and transition to developed countries.

Keywords: MIT, GNP per capita, ECM

Abstrak

Bank Dunia mengklasifikasikan negara Indonesia ke dalam kelompok negara dengan pendapatan menengah ke bawah (lower-middle income country) selama 13 tahun terakhir. Hal ini, menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia cukup stagnan dalam waktu yang lama dan membuat potensi Indonesia masuk jebakan pendapatan menengah (middle income trap) sangat besar. Penelitian ini, diantaranya bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi apakah Indonesia telah masuk dalam MIT. Analisis time series ECM digunakan sekaligus untuk mengetahui tindakan apa yang perlu dilakukan dalam jangka panjang untuk keluar atau terhindar dari jebakan pendapatan menengah. PNB per kapita sebagai dasar pengklasifikasian kelompok pendapatan negara-negara di dunia digunakan sebagai variabel untuk melihat MIT. Didapatkan hasil bahwa dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang sektor jasa dan jumlah tenaga kerja berpendidikan tinggi akan berpengaruh positif terhadap PNB per kapita. Sektor pertanian berpengaruh positif hanya dalam jangka pendek, sedangkan sektor manufaktur berpengaruh negatif dalam jangka panjang. Struktur perekonomian yang tidak didukung bersama-sama oleh sektor-sektor ekonomi ini menunjukkan bahwa transformasi struktur ekonomi tidak berjalan dengan baik dan mengindikasikan Indonesia telah masuk dalam jebakan pendapatan menengah. Pemerintah diharapkan dapat meningkatkan sektor jasa, PMTB, dan tenaga kerja berpendidikan tinggi (human capital), serta memperbaiki sektor pertanian dan manufaktur di Indonesia sebagai upaya keluar dari jebakan pendapatan menengah dan bertransisi menuju negara maju.

Kata kunci: MIT, PNB per kapita, ECM

Keywords

MIT; ECM; PNB per kapita; GNP per capita

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